Italien, GameStop und teure Prophezeiungen

Italien hat gewählt. Wir schauen auf die Zinsen und gehen ins Grundsätzliche. Was das mit multiplen Gleichgewichten, GameStop und teuren Prophezeiungen zu tun hat, erklären wir in diesem Geldbrief. Am Ende geht es dabei um nichts geringeres als die Souveränität Europas.

Do the MTO’s Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balances Serve Their Purpose? An Analysis and a Reform Proposal

The Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) is up for review. It is also in urgent need of reform if rule-based fiscal policy is to be maintained without impeding the recovery from the Covid crisis, without standing in the way of achieving the climate targets, and without undermining European sovereignty in an era of new geopolitical challenges. Yet, legislative reform faces significant challenges, given the position of countries such as Germany. Thus, we argue that a first reform step that is both viable within the current framework and supportive of economic recovery and growth could be a useful start.

The cyclical component of the debt brake: analysis and a reform proposal

Debt brake (Schuldenbremse) reform is often understood to require constitutional change.
Frequently overlooked, however, is that a crucial part of the debt brake is governed by ordinary
law, namely the cyclical component (Konjunkturkomponente). By allowing for more or less net
borrowing depending on the level of economic activity, this component was intended to enable a
counter-cyclical fiscal policy, while both limiting and legitimising new spending. Sections 1-7 of this
paper assess to what extent it is fulfilling this purpose.Recent research, however, has shown that this paradigm yields suboptimal results in the current environment: It neither ensures the long-term sustainability of public finances, nor limits external imbalances, nor effectively contributes to solving the challenges Germany faces today, in particular decarbonisation and demographic change. As this is increasingly being recognised, a lively debate on the future of fiscal rules has developed, both in Germany and internationally. This working paper contributes to that debate by developing reform ideas that depart from a positive goal for fiscal policy rather than from the deficiencies of the current rules.